ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - A wider surplus, tougher road ahead

Trade surplus widens in Nov-25, but remains below expectations

Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to USD2.67 bn in Nov-25 (Oct-25: USD2.39 bn), extending the surplus streak to 67 consecutive months since May-20. However, the figure came in below our forecast (USD3.12 bn) and market consensus (USD3.18 bn). The sequential improvement was driven by a stronger Non-Oil and Gas (NOG) surplus, which rose to USD4.63 bn (Oct-25: USD4.31 bn), more than offsetting a marginal widening in oil and gas (OG) deficit to –USD1.98 bn (from –USD1.92 bn). By trading partner, Indonesia’s trade balance showed divergence: the US remained the largest positive contributor with a surplus of USD1.8 bn (Oct-25: USD1.7 bn), while China continued to register the largest deficit, albeit narrowing to –USD1.53 bn (from –USD2.14 bn). On a cumulative basis, Indonesia’s trade surplus increased to USD38.54 bn in 11M25 from USD29.24 bn in 11M24.

 

Export weakens further amid lower China demand and commodity prices

Exports declined sharply by –7.08% MoM and –6.60% YoY to USD22.53 bn in Nov-25, extending the contraction from the prior month and printing well below expectations (our forecast: –4.11% YoY; consensus: –1.85% YoY). The weakness was broad-based, with NOG exports falling by -7.30% MoM and -5.09% YoY to USD21.64 bn, while OG exports declined by -1.25% MoM and -32.88% YoY to USD0.89 bn. By sector, all major export categories contracted: manufacturing exports edged down by –1.46% YoY to USD18.11 bn, agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports fell by –6.09% YoY to USD0.54 bn, while mining and other exports plunged by –22.28% YoY to USD2.98 bn.

 

Structural headwinds persist

Looking ahead, Indonesia’s trade surplus is expected to remain in surplus, but structurally narrower in 2026, as export momentum weakens amid softer demand from China, moderating commodity prices, the imposition of export duties on coal and gold, and the implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandate. China remains Indonesia’s largest export destination (around 24% of total exports), and recent export trends reinforce a more cautious forward outlook. Shipments to China declined to USD5.79 bn in Nov-25 (–7.35% MoM; –3.25% YoY), reflecting softer underlying demand that is likely to persist into 2026. This is consistent with weakening manufacturing momentum in China, as indicated by the Caixin Manufacturing PMI easing to 49.9 in November, its lowest level since July. These pressures are compounded by sharp declines in coal and CPO prices, which fell –21.55% YoY and –21.74% YoY, respectively. On the import side, a combination of fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy is expected to support improving industrial activity, which in turn may translate to higher imports.

 

Imports mixed as oil demand rises and purchasing power weakens

Indonesia’s imports stood at USD19.86 bn in Nov-25, contracting by -9.06% MoM but still posting marginal growth of +0.46% YoY. The print came in below both our forecast (+1.15% YoY) and market consensus (+3.61% YoY). By sector, NOG imports declined sharply by -10.68% MoM and -1.15% YoY to USD16.70 bn, mainly due to weaker demand for mechanical machinery and equipment (HS Code 84), which fell by -20.52% MoM and -5.49% YoY to USD2.74 bn. In contrast, OG imports increased by +1.70% MoM and +11.19% YoY to USD2.86 bn, driven by stronger crude oil imports, which rose by +6.94% MoM and +76.93% YoY to USD0.87 bn. By end-use category, imports declined across the board, with consumer goods imports falling by -0.54% MoM to USD1.99 bn, raw material imports dropping by -10.51% MoM to USD13.60 bn, and capital goods imports decreasing by -8.12% MoM to USD4.27 bn. Overall, the broad-based monthly contraction points to weaker purchasing power and softer industrial activity.