ECONOMIC UPDATE - FX reserves review - FX reserves shrink but the Rupiah slightly appreciates

Indonesia’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves declined to USD 151.9 bn in Feb-26, down from USD 154.6 bn in January, marking the lowest level since Nov-25. The decrease was mainly driven by government external debt repayments and BI’s interventions to stabilize the Rupiah amid persistent...

ECONOMIC UPDATE – Inflation - Inflation spikes at the start of Ramadan

Monthly inflation accelerated to 0.68% MoM in Feb-26, rebounding from -0.15% MoM in Jan-26 and marking the highest reading since Apr-25, exceeding both our forecast (0.42% MoM) and market consensus (0.30% MoM). The pickup was mainly driven by the food, beverages, and tobacco category, which...

ECONOMIC UPDATE – Inflation - Inflation spikes at the start of Ramadan

Monthly inflation accelerated to 0.68% MoM in Feb-26, rebounding from -0.15% MoM in Jan-26 and marking the highest reading since Apr-25, exceeding both our forecast (0.42% MoM) and market consensus (0.30% MoM). The pickup was mainly driven by the food, beverages, and tobacco category, which...

Fund Performance

ECONOMIC UPDATE – BoP review - BoP strengthens, but external pressures persist

Indonesia’s balance of payments (BoP) returned to a surplus of USD6.1 bn in 4Q25, a sharp turnaround from a USD6.4 bn deficit in 3Q25 and the highest quarterly surplus in 2025. The turnaround was primarily supported by a stronger capital and financial account (CFA), which more than offset...

STRATEGY REPORT - Overweight - MSCI-driven sell-off creates selective opportunities

In the immediate aftermath of the MSCI announcement, JCI corrected sharply, touching a low of 7,482 (-18% from its peak) before closing January at 8,330 (-3.7% MoM). Foreign investors recorded Rp12.3 tn (~USD700 mn) of net selling over Wednesday–Friday, reflecting early positioning ahead of...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - High inflation, but temporary

Monthly inflation slowed to -0.15% MoM in Jan-26, reversing from +0.64% MoM in Dec-25 and marking the softest reading since Feb-25. The outcome undershot both our forecast (+0.10% MoM) and market consensus (+0.06% MoM). The moderation was primarily driven by the food, beverage, and tobacco...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - A wider surplus, tougher road ahead

Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to USD2.67 bn in Nov-25 (Oct-25: USD2.39 bn), extending the surplus streak to 67 consecutive months since May-20. However, the figure came in below our forecast (USD3.12 bn) and market consensus (USD3.18 bn). The sequential improvement was driven by a...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation beats expectations, outlook revised higher

Monthly inflation rebounded to +0.21% MoM in Sep-25, reversing Aug-25’s -0.08% deflation and coming in above both our forecast (+0.13% MoM) and consensus (+0.10% MoM). The main driver was the food, beverage, and tobacco sector, which rose +0.38% MoM and contributed 0.11 percentage points to...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - August inflation eases, but upside risks persist

Indonesia recorded monthly deflation of -0.08% MoM in Aug-25, down from +0.30% MoM in Jul-25, and below both our forecast (+0.07% MoM) and the consensus estimate (+0.09% MoM). This marks the first monthly deflation since Feb-25. The main driver was the food, beverage, and tobacco sector, which...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Trade surplus narrows on mixed export-import trends

Indonesia’s trade surplus slightly narrowed to USD4.10 bn in Jun-25 from USD4.30 bn in May-25, but still exceeded both our forecast of USD3.63 bn and the consensus estimate of USD3.44 bn. This marks the 62^nd consecutive monthly trade surplus since May-20 and the third instance this...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - July inflation picks up, with further upward pressure ahead

Indonesia’s monthly inflation accelerated to +0.30% MoM in Jul-25, up from +0.19% MoM in Jun-25, exceeding both our forecast (+0.27% MoM) and the consensus estimate (+0.23% MoM). This marks the highest monthly inflation rate since Dec-24. The primary driver was a sharp increase in the...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation rebounds in June on holidays and festive spending

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded a monthly inflation of +0.19% MoM in Jun-25, reversing May’s −0.37% deflation and surpassing both our forecast (+0.08%) and consensus (+0.12%). The primary driver was a sharp rise in the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco sector,...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Post-Eid price correction drives inflation dip

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded a monthly deflation rate of -0.37% MoM in May-25, marking a reversal from the inflationary trend observed since March. This deflation was slightly deeper than both our projection of -0.27% MoM and the consensus forecast of -0.14% MoM.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - BoP review - CAD improves on trade surplus, but widening risks loom

Bank Indonesia (BI) reported a balance of payments (BoP) deficit of USD0.8 bn in 1Q25, a reversal from the USD7.8 bn surplus in 4Q24. The decline was mainly driven by deficits in the current account (CA) and the capital and financial account (FA). Despite the BoP deficit, forex reserves rose to...