ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation rebounds in June on holidays and festive spending

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded a monthly inflation of +0.19% MoM in Jun-25, reversing May’s −0.37% deflation and surpassing both our forecast (+0.08%) and consensus (+0.12%). The primary driver was a sharp rise in the Food, Beverages, and Tobacco sector,...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Post-Eid price correction drives inflation dip

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded a monthly deflation rate of -0.37% MoM in May-25, marking a reversal from the inflationary trend observed since March. This deflation was slightly deeper than both our projection of -0.27% MoM and the consensus forecast of -0.14% MoM.

Fund Performance

ECONOMIC UPDATE - BoP review - CAD improves on trade surplus, but widening risks loom

Bank Indonesia (BI) reported a balance of payments (BoP) deficit of USD0.8 bn in 1Q25, a reversal from the USD7.8 bn surplus in 4Q24. The decline was mainly driven by deficits in the current account (CA) and the capital and financial account (FA). Despite the BoP deficit, forex reserves rose to...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation heats up on gold and electricity tariff surge

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded a monthly inflation rate of +1.17% MoM in Apr-25, continuing the inflationary trend from the previous month. This figure was slightly higher than our projection of +1.10% MoM and the consensus forecast of +1.02% MoM.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Trade surplus widens in March, but external risks loom

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia’s trade surplus rose to USD4.33 bn in Mar-25 from USD3.12 bn in Feb-25. This figure exceeded both our forecast of USD4.00 bn and the consensus estimate of USD2.86 bn, marking the 59^th consecutive monthly surplus since May-20.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Trade surplus shrinks as imports surge

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia’s trade surplus decreased by -9.70% MoM to USD3.12 bn in Feb-25. However, this figure exceeded both our forecast of USD2.73 bn and the consensus estimate of USD2.40 bn, extending Indonesia’s streak of 58 consecutive monthly surpluses...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Monthly deflation continues for second consecutive month

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded a monthly deflation of -0.48% MoM in Feb-25, extending the deflationary trend from the previous month. This figure was well below our projection of +0.15% MoM and the consensus forecast of +0.11% MoM.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Unexpectedly wide trade surplus driven by import contraction

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia’s trade surplus surged by +54.17% MoM and +72.6% YoY to USD3.45 bn in Jan-25, significantly exceeding our forecast of USD2.10 bn and the consensus estimate of USD1.77 bn. This marks the highest trade surplus since Nov-24 and extends...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - GDP stagnates at 5.0% YoY

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that Indonesia’s GDP grew by 5.02% YoY in 4Q24 and 5.03% YoY for FY24, in line with our projections but slightly above consensus estimates (4.96% YoY for 4Q24 and 5.01% YoY for FY24). This marks an acceleration from the previous quarter’s 4.95% YoY...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - First monthly deflation Since Sep-24

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded monthly deflation of -0.76% MoM in Jan-25, marking the first deflation since Sep-24. This figure was significantly below our projection of +0.20% and the consensus forecast of +0.35% MoM. 

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Narrow trade surplus due to weak exports and high imports

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia’s trade surplus fell sharply by -48.7% MoM and -31.9% YoY to USD2.24 bn in Dec-24, missing our forecast of USD2.42 bn and the consensus estimate of USD3.79 bn. This marks the lowest trade surplus since Jul-24 but extends Indonesia’s...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Indonesia’s FY24 inflation falls to historic low

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), monthly inflation in Dec-24 rose by +0.44% MoM, the highest level since March. This figure was below our projection of +0.54% MoM but slightly exceeded the consensus forecast of +0.42% MoM. The primary driver was a significant +1.33% MoM increase in food,...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Shrinking imports propel unexpected high trade surplus

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade surplus grew by 1.94% MoM and 2.01% YoY to USD4.42 bn in Nov-24, exceeding our forecast of USD2.38 bn and the consensus estimate of USD2.29 bn. This marks the highest trade surplus since Mar-24 and continues Indonesia's 55-month...