STRATEGY REPORT - Overweight - Our first take on the market impact of Trump 2.0

Donald Trump secured a second term as president after winning key battleground states on November 6. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election is not limited to its domestic implications; it has the power to reverberate globally, particularly affecting countries such as Indonesia. 

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Monthly deflation ends as gold prices rise

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a monthly inflation increase of +0.08% MoM In Oct-24, breaking the deflationary trend since May. This rate surpassed both our projection of +0.05% MoM and the consensus forecast of +0.03% MoM.

Fund Performance

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Unexpected high trade surplus boosted by declining import

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade surplus jumped by +12.34% MoM to USD3.25 bn in Sep-24. Moreover, this figure surpass both our forecast of USD2.67 bn and the consensus estimate of USD2.79 bn. This is the highest trade surplus since March. 

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Five months of deflation push inflation to lowest since Nov-21

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the monthly inflation rate decreased by -0.12% MoM in Sep-24, marking the fifth consecutive month of deflation. This deflation rate was steeper than both our expectations and the consensus forecasts of -0.04% MoM and -0.02% MoM, respectively.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Monetary review - BI surprises with 25 bps rate cut to 6.00%

Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly reduced its benchmark rate (BI-rate) by 25 bps to 6.00% in September 2024, falling short of both our projections and the market consensus of 6.25%. In line with this move, the deposit and lending facility rates were also lowered to 5.25% and 6.75%, respectively....

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation rate eases as expected

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the monthly inflation rate decreased to -0.03% MoM in Aug-24, marking the fourth consecutive month of deflation. This rate slightly surpassed both our expectations and the consensus forecasts of -0.10% MoM and -0.04% MoM, respectively.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Unexpected small trade surplus on import jumps

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade surplus fell by -80.25% MoM and -64.02% YoY to USD0.47 bn in Jul-24. Moreover, this figure was below both our forecast of USD2.41 bn and the consensus estimate of USD2.47 bn.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - GDP growth slightly decelerate as expected

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported a GDP growth rate of 5.05% YoY for 2Q24, decelerating compared to the previous quarter's 5.11% YoY. However, this figure slightly surpassed both our projected estimate and the consensus, which stood at 5.02% YoY and 5.00% YoY, respectively. 

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Despite dip, trade surplus maintained for 50 consecutive months

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade surplus fell by -0.54% MoM and -1.06% YoY to USD2.39 bn in Jun-24 (vs. USD2.93 bn in May-24 and USD3.45 bn in Jun-23). Moreover, this figure was below both our forecast of USD2.91 bn and the consensus estimate of USD2.90 bn. This is...

ECONOMIC UPDATE – Inflation - Yearly inflation rate eases to lowest level since Oct-23

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the monthly inflation rate slowed to -0.08% MoM in Jun-24, down from -0.03% MoM in May-24, marking two consecutive months of deflation. This rate was below both our expectations and the consensus forecasts of 0.03% MoM and 0.02% MoM, respectively, and...

ECONOMIC UPDATE – Inflation - Post Eid and harvest season push inflation down

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the monthly inflation rate slowed to -0.03% MoM in May-24 from 0.25% MoM in Apr-24, below both our expectations and consensus forecasts of 0.07% MoM and 0.06% MoM, respectively. This deflation marks the slowest rate since Oct-22.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - BoP review - Twin deficit amidst global uncertainty

Bank Indonesia (BI) reported a balance of payments (BoP) deficit of -USD6.0 bn in 1Q24, a sharp turnaround from the previous quarter's surplus of USD8.6  bn. This deficit is the highest since 2Q23. The BoP deficit was mainly driven by a widening deficit both the capital and financial...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Trade surplus narrows amidst Rupiah depreciation

According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade surplus slightly decreased by -1.02% MoM and -0.38% YoY to USD3.56 bn in Apr-24, (vs. USD4.57 bn in Mar-24 and USD3.94 bn in Apr-23). However, the trade surplus was higher than both our forecast of USD3.19 bn and the consensus...